German lawmakers from the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition are pursuing higher tax increases on e-cigarette liquids than initially planned by the Federal Ministry of Finance. The move has triggered warnings from industry representatives who predict a decline in legal sales and a surge in illicit trade across Germany.
The Federal Ministry of Finance previously proposed a moderate increase of one cent, raising the tax to 33 cents per milliliter in January 2027. However, coalition factions in the Bundestag now favor a three-cent increase, which would set the rate at 35 cents per milliliter. Because value-added tax (VAT) is calculated on top of excise taxes, a standard 10-milliliter bottle currently priced around €12 would increase by roughly 36 cents.
| Stage / Proposal | Tax Rate per Milliliter | Projected 10ml Retail Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Current Rate (Early 2026) | €0.32 / ml | Baseline pricing (~€12.00) |
| Finance Ministry Proposal (2027) | €0.33 / ml | + €0.12 (incl. VAT) |
| Bundestag Coalition Plan (2027) | €0.35 / ml | + €0.36 (incl. VAT) |
Dustin Dahlmann, chairman of the Alliance for Tobacco-Free Enjoyment (BfTG), warned that higher taxes directly benefit criminal networks. He noted that the black market share jumped from 40% to 50% after the tax rose by six cents to 32 cents earlier this year.
"This trend is likely to continue if the tax screw is turned tightly again," Dahlmann stated. He added that higher taxes do not guarantee increased state revenues, citing data from 2025 when the federal government collected only €403 million from e-cigarette taxes against a forecast of €520 million.
Public health researchers and politicians remain focused on youth prevention. According to the DEBRA study conducted by Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, roughly 3% of people aged 14 and older in Germany use e-cigarettes. While the vaping sector notes that e-cigarettes release fewer harmful substances than combustible tobacco, cancer researchers caution that nicotine remains addictive and long-term health risks require continued study.
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