A new report predicts severe economic consequences if the UK government's proposed Tobacco and Vapes Bill, championed by Labour leader Keir Starmer, becomes law. The study warns that the bill's core element – a generational sales ban (GSB) on tobacco – could force 7,700 corner shops and off-licences to close and eliminate 70,100 retail jobs over the next three decades.
The report, "The Backbone of the UK Under Attack" by Dr. Maged Ali of the University of Essex, argues the GSB, which incrementally raises the legal smoking age annually, will significantly harm small retailers already grappling with cost-of-living pressures. Dr. Ali contends that banning legal tobacco sales to future generations won't stop demand but will instead drive consumers to the illicit market.
"Profits will flow to criminals instead of legitimate retailers, while the Government wastes resources enforcing a ban that fails to curb demand," the report states, describing the outcome as a "lose-lose-lose" situation. Beyond job and business losses, the study estimates the government could forfeit £23.8 billion in potential tax revenue, while spending an additional £828 million on enforcement.
The analysis also suggests the negative impacts won't be evenly distributed, predicting Scotland and Wales will be disproportionately affected, with higher percentages of retailers potentially forced to close compared to other regions.
The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, supported by Health Secretary Wes Streeting, is scheduled for its second reading in the House of Lords later this month. The Labour government maintains the legislation is vital for creating the UK's first smoke-free generation and ending cycles of addiction. A government spokesperson stated, "It’s absolutely vital that we support local retailers," promising guidance to help businesses through the transition and highlighting other support measures like business rates relief.
